Evidence library

Research library

53 papers across 7 topics, each read, summarised and graded by how much weight it carries on its own. Published literature only: no personal data. Built 2026-08-24.

This is a reading of published research, not medical advice. Nothing here accounts for an individual history, medication or condition. The tier grades the strength of a source, not the truth of a claim: a T3 paper can be right, and a T1 paper can be superseded.

What the evidence supports doing

Built 24 August 2026 from the 52 papers in ../index.csv, across five topics.

Read this first. This is a synthesis of published general-population research. It is not medical advice and it is not linked to anyone's personal record, which is the separation research/README.md exists to protect. Nothing here accounts for an individual's history, medications or conditions. Where an action interacts with a diagnosis or a drug, that is a conversation with a clinician, not a file.

Actions are ordered by the tier of the evidence behind them, not by how appealing they are.

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Evidence: ../topics/exercise-and-mitochondria.md, Mølmen 2025 (T1), Abrego-Guandique 2025 (T2).

The only T1 intervention in this library that measurably changes mitochondria in humans. Training load (volume x intensity) predicts the size of the change.

Three things that change how to act on it:

What is not established: the optimal prescription. Bishop 2025 asks exactly that and concludes the evidence cannot yet specify one.

Evidence: ../topics/light-and-circadian.md, Gooley 2011 (T1), Dautovich 2019 (T1), Chang 2015 (T1), Schöllhorn 2023 (T1).

Timing dominates amount. Bright morning light shifts sleep earlier and improves it; bright evening light shifts it later and worsens it. The shape is more light early, less late, not less light.

The threshold is far lower than people assume. Ordinary room light under 200 lux in the hours before bed delayed melatonin onset in 99% of 116 people and cut melatonin duration by ~90 minutes. It is the room, not only the phone. Even 5-10 lux with eyes closed produces a circadian response, which makes bedroom darkness a real variable.

If you act on one number, it is melanopic EDI, not lux and not colour temperature (Schöllhorn 2023). Displays can be spectrally tuned without changing how they look.

Honest tradeoff: evening blue light improves alertness and cognition acutely (Cajochen 2011) while damaging circadian timing. You are trading tonight's sharpness against tomorrow's. And because the effect is imperceptible - subjects rated the screens identical - subjective comfort is not a usable guide.

Evidence: ../topics/ketogenic-diet-by-indication.md, Mongkolsucharitkul 2025 (T1, 27 RCTs, n=2,870), Yuan 2024 (T2 network meta-analysis), Choy 2023 (T2), Ichikawa 2024 (T2).

Carbohydrate reduction works in type 2 diabetes: HbA1c -0.29%, largest at 3 months, attenuating after. Past 12 months the glycaemic and weight advantage is gone; the lipid benefit persists (HDL up, triglycerides down, I2 = 0%).

Ranked against other diets, Mediterranean beats low-carbohydrate for glycaemic control (SUCRA 88.15% vs 55.7%). Low-carbohydrate leads on body composition, and even there the authors call the differences "mostly small and often trivial".

Going all the way to ketosis adds nothing measurable for glycaemia or weight over control diets (Choy 2023). And across 27 trials and 2,870 people, no arm sustained carbohydrate below 10% of energy. Nearly nobody maintains actual keto.

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Hester 2021 (T2): 16 RCTs, 453 patients. The supported outcome is falling asleep faster. Not sleep quality, not duration, not mood. Set the expectation there.

Zhang 2025 (T2, preregistered): reduced fatigue, insomnia, insulin, glucose, fat mass; improved lipids, TSH, emotional and social function. Two independent RCTs agree it is safe and feasible with chemotherapy and radiotherapy.

This is a real benefit on outcomes patients care about. It is not a treatment for the cancer - see the next section.

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The same result keeps arriving from four unrelated literatures:

WhereWhat was expectedWhat was found
Seyfried 2003, mouse tumoursketosis starves tumoursunrestricted keto did nothing; caloric restriction cut growth ~80% in either diet
ERGO2 2020, gliomaketosis extends survivalketosis achieved, no survival benefit; low glucose predicted better outcomes
Nutrients 2026, gliomaGKI tracks efficacyGKI rarely reached; lower glucose associated with better outcomes
T2D network analysisthe diet does the workHbA1c reduction related only to weight change
PCOS meta-analysesketosis corrects hormoneseffects inseparable from weight loss in overweight populations

Across five independent literatures the operative variable looks like energy intake and glucose, not ketone elevation.

That does not make ketogenic eating pointless. For some people it is the most practical way to reduce intake and lower glucose, and it has a consistent lipid effect that restriction alone does not explain. But the mechanism usually claimed is not the mechanism the data supports, and this matters: if the benefit runs through energy and glucose, then exercise, sleep and total intake are levers on the same pathway, and they are levers with better evidence and fewer costs.

Epilepsy is the exception and should not be folded in. There the mechanism is neurological, the diet is standard care, and the evidence is separate and strong.

How papers are graded

T1 Established12 papers

Large or definitive human evidence, corroborated beyond one paper.

T2 Supported19 papers

Sound human study or synthesis, single source, awaiting replication.

T3 Preliminary9 papers

Small n, subgroup, cross-sectional or method-first. Hypothesis.

T4 Framework13 papers

No new data. Reviews, perspectives, theory. Never cite as evidence.

All papers

Topic syntheses

Each topic read as a whole: what converges, what contradicts, what is missing.

Cancer as a metabolic disease - topic synthesis16 papers

Built 24 August 2026 from 11 papers: 10 from Thomas Seyfried's bibliography and one independent randomised trial that tests his central clinical claim. Author dossier and full 230-record bibliography: ../authors/seyfried-thomas.md.

General literature only, not linked to the personal record.

Cancer originates from damage to mitochondrial respiration, not from nuclear mutations. The mutations that define the mainstream somatic mutation theory are downstream consequences. Because tumour cells are then dependent on fermenting glucose and glutamine, restricting both while supplying non-fermentable ketone bodies should manage the disease (Seyfried 2010, 2021).

This is a falsifiable claim about causal order, which is what makes it worth filing rather than dismissing.

Tumour mitochondria are biochemically abnormal. Kiebish 2008 found major cardiolipin content or composition defects in all five mouse brain tumours examined, associated with reduced electron transport chain activity. Cardiolipin is confined to the inner mitochondrial membrane and required for respiratory function, so this is a specific, measured lesion rather than a general assertion. It is the strongest empirical contribution in the topic. It is also mouse, single lab, correlational, and does not establish that the lesion comes first.

Caloric restriction slows tumour growth in mice. Seyfried 2003, about 80% reduction in CT-2A astrocytoma.

Seyfried 2003 ran four arms, and the one usually omitted from summaries is the unrestricted ketogenic diet.

ArmTumour growth
Standard diet, unrestrictedrapid
Ketogenic diet, unrestrictedrapid
Standard diet, 40% restricted~80% reduced
Ketogenic diet, 40% restricted~80% reduced

His own conclusion: growth "is dependent more on the amount than on the origin of dietary calories".

Ketosis without restriction did nothing. Restriction worked in either diet. The popular claim that ketogenic eating starves tumours is not supported by the founding experiment of the programme that promotes it.

  • 7 case reports, uncontrolled, one of them a dog.
  • One randomised trial, published twice. 80 breast cancer patients, single centre, 12 weeks, adjunctive to chemotherapy, registration IRCT20171105037259N2.
  • Primary outcomes (quality of life, physical activity): null at 12 weeks.
  • Secondary report a year later: lower insulin and TNF-alpha, tumour size reduction and downstaging in locally advanced disease, no benefit in metastatic disease.

A trial with null registered primary outcomes and a separately published positive secondary paper warrants caution on the pattern alone.

ERGO2 (Voss 2020), a German randomised trial in recurrent malignant glioma, not connected to Seyfried:

EndpointKetogenic + fastingControl
PFS at 6 months (primary)20%16%
PFS, local PFS, overall survivalno differenceno difference

The intervention was delivered successfully: 17 of 20 completers reached ketosis, glucose fell significantly, no severe adverse events, modest 2.1 kg weight loss. It worked as a diet and failed as a therapy.

One thread survives. Within the diet arm, patients whose day-6 glucose was below the median (83.5 mg/dL) had significantly longer PFS and OS. That points at glucose, not at ketosis - converging with Seyfried's own 2003 finding.

Caveats owed to the trial: n=50, heavily pretreated recurrent patients, a short 9-day schedule, and a companion analysis showing the control group ate less than planned, which narrowed the contrast.

The therapeutic rationale requires that tumour cells cannot use ketones. Two filed papers say otherwise.

Sauer and Dauchy, Cancer Res 1983 measured arteriovenous differences across tumours in living fasted rats. Both ketone bodies were utilized, at rates directly proportional to supply. The proportionality is the damaging part: raising blood ketones raised tumour ketone consumption. Caveat: hepatomas and a sarcoma, not brain tumours, where the selectivity claim is specifically made.

Israël, Berg and Tenenbaum, J Clin Med 2023 name the enzymes: ketolysis via SCOT and ACAT1 is a major source of mitochondrial acetyl-CoA in tumour cells. Their proposed therapy is to inhibit those enzymes, the exact opposite of supplying ketones. T4, no new data, and see the file for a note on authorship.

This does not make ketogenic diets useless in cancer. It relocates any benefit away from substrate deprivation toward insulin, IGF-1 and inflammation, which is where the measured effects actually appear: lower insulin and TNF-alpha and higher IL-10 in the Khodabakhshi trial. That is also the mechanism most consistent with Seyfried's own 2003 finding that restriction rather than ketosis did the work.

Neurol Sci 2026 (Firdous)Nutrients 2026 (Persiani)
Comparatorhistorical controlsrandomised controls
Survivalmedian OS 29.4 vs 14.6 months, 66.7% 3-yearno significant OS/PFS difference
Verdictpotential to prolong survivalsurvival benefit unproven
TierT3T2

Same year, same disease, same underlying studies. The entire difference is the comparator.

Historical-control comparison inflates here for a specific reason: the cohorts are defined by adherence. Patients who sustain strict ketosis for months are younger, better performance status, better resourced, and more likely to have favourable tumour biology. You measure who can do the diet as much as what the diet does. When ERGO2 removed that by randomising, the difference was 20% vs 16%.

This pair is the most useful thing in the topic, more than either conclusion alone.

A third detail from the Persiani review: the GKI was rarely reported and its target values seldom reached outside fasting periods. The metric proposed in Meidenbauer 2015 as the way to monitor therapy is largely absent from the trials that would validate it.

TierCountWhich
T10nothing in this topic is established
T26ERGO2 (negative), Persiani 2026 (negative on RCTs), Zhang 2025 (positive on symptoms), Sauer 1983 (ketone use), Seyfried 2003 mouse, Kiebish 2008 cardiolipin
T34the two reports of the one RCT, Poff 2015 mouse, Firdous 2026 (historical controls)
T46Seyfried 2010, 2015 GKI, 2017 press-pulse, 2019 standard-of-care, 2021 MMT vs SMT, Israël 2023 keto-paradox

Still no T1, and the framework papers still equal the strongest evidence tier in number. In mitochondria-psychobiology.md the framework at least sat on top of T1 human measurement. Here it does not.

What did change with the 2025-2026 additions: the topic now contains positive evidence (Zhang 2025 on symptoms and body composition) and direct counter-evidence to the mechanism (Sauer 1983, Israël 2023). It is no longer a one-sided file.

Two things are true at once and both should be kept.

The critique of the incumbent has force. Glioblastoma survival has barely moved in decades, and Seyfried 2019 is right that dexamethasone raises blood glucose. A valid criticism of standard care is not, however, evidence for the alternative.

The proposal has not been tested as specified. Press-pulse (2017) is a multi-component protocol that has never been trialled as written. The simultaneous glucose-and-glutamine restriction of the 2021 paper has never been randomised in humans. The Glucose Ketone Index (2015) was validated retrospectively against data the authors selected, with no prospective threshold and no independent evaluation, and ERGO2 suggests the glucose half carries whatever signal exists.

The venue pattern is also informative: the theory papers appear in Nutrition & Metabolism, Metabolites and Neurochemical Research, not in cancer biology journals where a claim about the origin of cancer would face the relevant referees.

Three separate claims, three different answers. Merging them is the main way this literature gets misread, in both directions.

Supported. A ketogenic diet is safe and feasible alongside chemotherapy and radiotherapy: two independent randomised trials agree. And it measurably helps patients: the preregistered Front Nutr 2025 meta-analysis found reduced fatigue, insomnia, insulin, glucose, fat mass and visceral fat, with improved lipids, TSH, emotional and social function. That is a real benefit on outcomes patients care about.

Not supported. That metabolic therapy treats, manages or reverses cancer. No randomised trial has shown a survival benefit, and the trial designed to test it found none.

"It helps patients" and "it treats the cancer" are different claims. The first has meta-analytic support. The second does not. An earlier version of this file collapsed them and read as though ketogenic diets do nothing in cancer, which is not what the literature says. See ketogenic-diet-by-indication.md for the same separation applied across epilepsy, PCOS and cancer.

One caution to carry: unintentional weight loss and cachexia independently predict mortality in cancer, so reduced fat mass is not unambiguously good here.

This matters because the framework is widely used to justify declining or delaying standard oncology. Nothing in the 230-paper bibliography supports that, and the founding mouse experiment argues against the mechanism usually cited for it.

Occasionally circulated as evidence for a suppressed cancer cure. Worth recording accurately, because what it contains is more interesting than the claim made from it.

"Biochemical Resemblance Between Endoparasites and Malignant Tumors", CIA-RDP80-00809A000600380033-3, distributed 26 February 1951, CONFIDENTIAL, 2 pages, released 14 September 2011. Retrievable from the CIA FOIA reading room (cia.gov blocks direct fetches; the Wayback Machine holds a copy).

It is a translation summary of a Soviet review article by V. V. Alpatov, Priroda Vol XXXIX No 10, pp 22-27, Leningrad, October 1950. Stamped on its face: "THIS IS UNEVALUATED INFORMATION."

Alpatov's argument: intestinal parasitic worms and malignant tumours share pronounced anaerobic metabolism and glycogen accumulation, and both belong to what he calls the "amphibiotic euryoxybiotical-aerofermentor type" - fermenting under aerobic conditions while remaining adapted to anaerobic ones. He adds that some compounds active against Bilharzia were also active against tumours, and that tumour tissue and parasites share an inverted response to optical enantiomers of atebrin.

That central observation is the Warburg effect, described in 1950 from a parasitology direction. A genuine and non-obvious convergence with this topic, arrived at independently.

What it is not: CIA research, a discovery, a suppressed finding, or a cure claim. It is a two-page open-source translation, explicitly unevaluated, publicly available since 2011. The viral framing ("CIA files confirm anti-parasitic drugs cure cancer, buried by Big Pharma") is false and has been fact-checked as such.

Where the thread is genuinely live: repurposing antiparasitics as anticancer agents is a real research area. PubMed currently holds ~270 papers on mebendazole and cancer and ~85 on fenbendazole, but only ~5 and ~9 clinical-trial papers for mebendazole and ivermectin respectively, with no established efficacy. Structurally the same shape as the rest of this topic: substantial preclinical volume, loud online claims, thin human evidence.

Filed as a reference, not as evidence. It is not in index.csv.

  • No newly-diagnosed-glioblastoma trial. ERGO2 tested recurrent, heavily pretreated disease, the hardest setting. The fair test has not been run.
  • No trial of press-pulse or of combined glucose-glutamine targeting as actually specified.
  • No mainstream cancer-biology rebuttal filed. ERGO2 and the two ketone-use papers supply empirical counterweight, but not a theoretical one; the somatic mutation theory is still represented here only through Seyfried's characterisation of it.
  • Nothing on glutamine targeting from outside this group, though it is an active mainstream area and is the part of the theory most likely to survive.
  • No case-report appraisal. Seven exist in the bibliography and none are written up, because uncontrolled single cases cannot establish efficacy. If they are ever filed it should be as a group, with that stated.
Exercise and mitochondria - topic synthesis3 papers

Built 24 August 2026. This topic exists because it holds the only T1 intervention evidence in the library: something you can do that measurably changes mitochondria in humans, with a dose relationship.

Closes the gap flagged in mitochondria-psychobiology.md, which noted that no exercise paper had been filed despite one existing in Picard's bibliography.

Exercise training increases skeletal muscle mitochondrial content in humans, and training load (volume x intensity) predicts the size of the change (Mølmen 2025, systematic review with meta-regression). VO2max moves with it.

The molecular mechanism corroborates it: PGC-1alpha, the master regulator of mitochondrial biogenesis, rises after endurance exercise with a large pooled effect (Hedge's g = 1.17; Abrego-Guandique 2025).

This is a different class of claim from everything else filed under mitochondria. mitochondria-psychobiology.md is observational and theoretical. This is an intervention with a measured structural outcome.

Gains are largest in the least fit. Mølmen 2025: "the magnitude of change in mitochondrial content, capillarization, and VO2max is largely determined by the initial fitness level, with greater changes observed in individuals with lower initial fitness."

This inverts the usual assumption. The worse your starting point, the more you get back per unit of work. It is the single most encouraging sentence in the library.

Adaptation is preserved across age, sex and disease. Mølmen 2025 again: "the ability to adapt to exercise training is maintained throughout life, irrespective of sex and presence of disease." That removes the three most common reasons people assume training will not help them.

Modality does not decide it. Interval and continuous training produced statistically indistinguishable effects on PGC-1alpha (g = 1.29 vs 1.01, p > 0.05). Sprint interval training gave faster initial gains; high-intensity training showed slower but steady improvement over more weeks. Since load predicts outcome and modality does not, the choice can be made on preference and adherence, which is what actually determines accumulated load.

Bishop, Lee and Picard (Annu Rev Physiol 2025) take the "exercise as mitochondrial medicine" phrase literally and ask what the prescription should be: type, dose, frequency, duration. Their honest conclusion is that prescription variables matter and the evidence is not yet sufficient to specify an optimum.

So: that exercise works is T1. How much of what kind is open, and the best available quantitative handle is Mølmen's "load predicts change".

Filed as T4, and worth noting it is the most useful T4 paper in the library because it asks a dose question rather than defending a position.

  • Mitochondria. Everything in mitochondria-psychobiology.md describes mitochondrial variation and its correlates. This topic is the only place with a lever. Picard's own energy resistance framing names physical activity as a primary way to reduce energy resistance; this topic is the evidence under that claim, and it stands on its own without the framework.
  • Diabetes. See ketogenic-diet-by-indication.md section 3a. Lifestyle syntheses in T2D consistently find diet and physical activity together drive glycaemic and weight outcomes.
  • Circadian. Untested overlap. Nothing filed connects exercise timing to the light-entrainment literature in light-and-circadian.md.
  • No resistance training paper. Everything filed is endurance or interval. Resistance training has its own mitochondrial literature and is absent.
  • No clinical outcome. Mitochondrial content and PGC-1alpha are structural and molecular. Nothing filed links a training-induced mitochondrial change to a disease or mortality outcome, which is a real gap given how the finding gets used.
  • No dose optimum, as Bishop 2025 states. "Load matters" is the current ceiling.
  • No detraining or minimum-effective-dose data. How fast gains are lost, and the least that maintains them, are unaddressed.
  • Nothing on exercise in cancer, despite it being one of the better-evidenced supportive interventions in oncology, and despite cancer-metabolic-theory.md being heavily weighted toward diet.
Ketogenic diet: what it does, by indication9 papers

Built 24 August 2026. The premise of this file is that "does keto work" is not one question. The evidence differs by an order of magnitude between indications, and collapsing them is how both the promoters and the sceptics go wrong.

Papers filed here plus the cancer entries in cancer-metabolic-theory.md.

IndicationTier of the claimWhat is supported
Drug-resistant epilepsy (children)T1Large randomised effect. Standard care.
PCOST1 by convergenceWeight, insulin resistance, androgens. Four independent meta-analyses agree.
Type 2 diabetes: short termT1HbA1c -0.29%, largest at 3 months.
Type 2 diabetes: beyond 12 monthsT2, nullGlycaemic and weight advantage gone. Lipid benefit persists.
Cancer: symptoms, body compositionT2Fatigue, insomnia, insulin, fat mass, emotional and social function.
Cancer: survivalT3, contestedNothing shown in randomised trials.

Note the tier here is on the claim, aggregated across papers. Individual papers are tiered separately in ../index.csv, which is why a T1 claim can rest on two T2 meta-analyses that agree.

JAMA Pediatr 2023 network meta-analysis, versus care as usual, for 50% or greater seizure reduction:

  • Modified Atkins diet OR 11.3 (5.1-25.1)
  • Ketogenic diet OR 8.6 (3.7-20.0)

For 90% or greater reduction, KD OR 6.5 (2.3-18.0).

This is a large effect from randomised trials, and it has been standard care in drug-resistant childhood epilepsy for a century. Any account of ketogenic diets that omits it is incomplete.

Two caveats that belong with it, not as footnotes:

  • Discontinuation from adverse events was far higher: KD OR 8.6, MAD OR 6.5. Cochrane records adverse effects in 17.5% to 20% of participants. The diet that performed best is the less strict one, and the authors say MAD is probably the sounder option. Tolerability is part of efficacy.
  • Cochrane grades the same underlying trials "low to very low certainty", because they are small and carry risk of bias, and says plainly that "the true effects of the diets could be substantially different to that reported". Adult evidence remains uncertain.

An odds ratio of 8.6 and a certainty rating of "low" describing the same trials is not a contradiction. Effect size and certainty are separate axes. This pair is the clearest illustration of that in the library.

Four separate meta-analyses, 2025-2026, different journals, different statistical approaches, same direction:

SynthesisPMID
Br J Nutr 2026 (filed)41249157
Gynecol Obstet Invest 2025 (filed)39978319
Reprod Biol Endocrinol 202540394635
Clin Nutr 202641483483

Consistent effects: weight down ~9.6 kg, BMI down ~3.5, fat mass down ~7.4 kg, waist down ~7.8 cm, glucose down, insulin and HOMA-IR down, total and free testosterone down, SHBG up, LH down, LH/FSH ratio down.

Convergence across independent teams is the strongest pattern available in this library, and PCOS is currently the only topic where it occurs.

Two unresolved points, both flagged by the reviews themselves. Heterogeneity is high (I2 up to 90% for insulin resistance). And every population is overweight or obese, so nothing here separates ketosis from caloric deficit and weight loss. Estrogens, progesterone, DHEAS and pregnancy outcomes were too scarce to pool, so the reproductive endpoints that matter most to patients remain open.

The largest synthesis (Mongkolsucharitkul 2025: 27 RCTs, n = 2,870) finds low-carbohydrate diets do work, and specifies the shape:

  • HbA1c -0.29%, largest effect at 3 months
  • Fasting glucose -7.12 mg/dL
  • Weight loss greatest at 3 months, attenuating after
  • Dose-response at 3 months: lower actual carbohydrate intake, larger reductions

Then the long-term picture (Ichikawa 2024, RCTs beyond 12 months, 6 trials):

  • HbA1c: no significant difference (SMD -0.11, P = 0.32)
  • No difference in weight, blood pressure or LDL
  • HDL up, triglycerides down - the lipid effects persist

And the ketogenic diet specifically (Choy 2023, 11 RCTs): no glycaemic or weight advantage over control diets, with HDL up and triglycerides down at I2 = 0%, the most consistent finding in the whole diabetes set.

Against other diets (Yuan 2024 network meta-analysis), low-carbohydrate is not the best option for glycaemic control:

Glycaemic control (SUCRA)Anthropometrics (SUCRA)
Mediterranean 88.15%Low-carbohydrate 74.6%
Moderate-carbohydrate 83.3%Moderate-carbohydrate 68.7%
Low-carbohydrate 55.7%Vegetarian 57%

with the authors noting the anthropometric differences were "mostly small and often trivial".

The most useful line in the diabetes literature, from Mongkolsucharitkul 2025:

"No arm sustained carbohydrate intake < 10% of total energy; therefore, findings generalize to low-to-moderate carbohydrate rather than very-low-carbohydrate."

Across 27 randomised trials and 2,870 people, not one arm actually maintained ketogenic-level restriction. Much of what is published as ketogenic is not, measured by intake. Any claim about what "keto does" for diabetes is in practice a claim about moderate carbohydrate reduction.

Carbohydrate reduction gives a real but modest, front-loaded glycaemic benefit that fades, a durable lipid benefit (HDL up, triglycerides down), and no advantage over a Mediterranean pattern for glucose. Going all the way to ketosis adds nothing measurable for glycaemia or weight, and almost nobody sustains it.

Supported. Front Nutr 2025 meta-analysis (preregistered): ketogenic versus non-ketogenic diets significantly reduced fat mass, visceral fat, insulin, glucose, fatigue and insomnia, and improved lipids, TSH, emotional and social function. Two independent RCTs also agree the diet is safe and feasible alongside chemotherapy and radiotherapy.

Not supported. Survival. No randomised trial has shown a benefit. Details and the full argument are in cancer-metabolic-theory.md, including the two 2026 systematic reviews that reach opposite conclusions purely because one uses randomised comparators and the other uses historical controls.

"It helps patients" and "it treats the cancer" are different claims. The first has evidence. The second does not.

One caution to carry: in cancer, unintentional weight loss and cachexia independently predict mortality, so fat mass reduction is not unambiguously good in this population.

The same signal keeps reappearing from unrelated directions:

  • Seyfried's own four-arm mouse experiment (2003): caloric restriction, not ketosis, produced the effect. An unrestricted ketogenic diet did nothing.
  • Type 2 diabetes: the ketogenic arm shows no glycaemic advantage over control (Choy 2023), while moderate carbohydrate reduction does work short term. Going further into ketosis adds nothing measurable.
  • A network meta-analysis in T2D (Nutrients 2023, PMID 37513574) found HbA1c and fasting glucose reductions were "only significantly related to the mean weight change of the subjects".
  • ERGO2 (2020): ketosis was achieved in 17 of 20 and there was no survival benefit, but low day-6 glucose predicted longer PFS and OS within the diet arm.
  • Nutrients 2026: RCTs null on survival, but lower glucose associated with better outcomes; the GKI was rarely reported and its targets seldom reached.
  • PCOS reviews: effects inseparable from weight loss in overweight populations.

Across four independent literatures the operative variable looks like glucose and energy intake, not ketone elevation. Ketosis may be the most practical way to lower glucose and intake for some people, which is a real and useful thing, but that is a different mechanism from the one usually claimed.

This does not touch epilepsy, where the mechanism is neurological rather than metabolic-substrate and the evidence is separate.

  • No head-to-head against calorie-matched non-ketogenic diets, which is the only design that could separate ketosis from restriction. Its absence is why section 4 stays a hypothesis.
  • No long-term data anywhere. Every synthesis here is weeks to months.
  • No adult epilepsy evidence, which Cochrane explicitly flags as uncertain.
  • No diabetes remission data. The filed syntheses cover HbA1c and weight, not remission, which is the outcome patients actually want and where trials exist.
  • No harms synthesis. Adverse events appear inside each review; nothing here assembles lipid changes, adherence burden, or risks in specific populations.
Light, circadian rhythm and sleep - topic synthesis8 papers

Built 24 August 2026 from the first 10 papers filed in the library. General literature only. Nothing here is linked to the personal record yet; that linkage is the separate "factors" step described in research/README.md.

Papers behind this note: see ../index.csv, topics light-and-circadian, light-countermeasures, light-flicker-and-arousal.

A distinct photopigment, separate from rods and cones, mediates circadian photoreception. Its action spectrum peaks at 446-477 nm (Brainard 2001, 72 subjects, 627 exposures, opsin template fit R2 = 0.91). This is now understood as melanopsin in intrinsically photosensitive retinal ganglion cells. Everything else in this folder rests on that finding.

The single most consequential number here: ordinary room light under 200 lux, in the 8 h before bed, delayed melatonin onset in 99.0% of 116 people and shortened melatonin duration by about 90 minutes (Gooley 2011). Light during sleep hours suppressed melatonin by over 50% in 85% of trials.

Tahkamo 2019 pushes it lower still: 5-10 lux at night with the eyes closed still produces a circadian response.

So the exposure that matters is not the phone alone. It is the room.

Schollhorn 2023 (72 subjects) is the paper that resolves this. By controlling melanopic irradiance independently of luminance and colour, it shows the melanopic quantity, not brightness and not perceived colour, governs sleep latency, melatonin suppression and melatonin phase, dose-dependently. And the tuning can be done without changing how the display looks.

Two corrections follow from Tahkamo 2019: the peak suppression wavelength is actually shorter than the usual 460 nm claim (424 nm, violet), and 631 nm red light and intermittent exposure also reset the clock. The blue framing is a useful approximation, not the mechanism.

Practical consequence: the metric to look for on hardware and lamps is melanopic EDI, not colour temperature, not lux, not a "night mode" label.

Dautovich 2019 (45 studies): bright light above 1000 lux is associated with better sleep, and the direction of effect flips with timing. Brighter morning light shifts the sleep period earlier and improves self-reported sleep. Brighter evening light shifts it later and worsens it.

The shape of any recommendation is therefore more light early, less late, not "less light".

  • Chang 2015 (inpatient crossover, PNAS): a light-emitting eReader versus a printed book produced longer sleep latency, less evening sleepiness, suppressed melatonin, a delayed circadian phase, and reduced next-morning alertness. This is the only paper in the set that carries the chain all the way to next-day function.
  • Cajochen 2011: an LED-backlit screen suppressed melatonin and acutely improved sustained attention, working memory and declarative memory. Subjects rated the two screens as equal in quality and comfort, and if anything judged the non-LED screen brighter.

The tradeoff in Cajochen is the honest complication and should not be dropped: evening blue light buys alertness now and costs circadian timing later. Schollhorn 2023 confirms it in reverse, with the low-melanopic setting reducing evening alertness.

Since the effect is not perceptible, subjective comfort is not a usable guide. This has to be handled by measurement or by fixed rules, not by how it feels.

Blue-blocking (amber) glasses, Hester 2021: 29 publications, 16 RCTs, 453 patients total. Substantial evidence for reduced sleep onset latency in sleep disorders, jet lag and shift work. Preliminary but striking signal in acute mania (1 RCT + 1 case study). Depression evidence conflicting.

Set the expectation correctly: the supported outcome is falling asleep faster, not better sleep quality, not longer sleep, not mood.

Kuller 1998 is the outlier in this set and is filed under a different topic on purpose. It concerns temporal modulation, not spectrum, acts on arousal and EEG alpha rather than on melatonin, and affected only the subgroup with high critical flicker fusion frequency. Its modern relevance is PWM dimming in LED lamps and device backlights, which reintroduced the deep modulation that electronic ballasts had eliminated. That relevance is an inference; no paper in this folder tests PWM directly.

Tahkamo 2019 is the sober assessment: of 128 studies, only 15 met a minimum bar of n >= 20 plus a full light specification. 39 of 128 had 10 or fewer subjects. Almost all subjects were in their twenties or thirties; children and older adults are barely studied. Several papers here are male-only (Cajochen n=13, Schollhorn n=72).

Two further limits worth carrying forward:

  • Recovery is fast. Melatonin returns within about 15 min of the light stopping (Tahkamo 2019). The suppression is acute, not cumulative damage.
  • Almost every endpoint is a biomarker. Melatonin and circadian phase, not disease. Chang 2015 (next-morning alertness) and Hester 2021 (sleep latency) are the exceptions. Claims about blood pressure, glucose or long-term health are inferences the authors flag, not results they measured.

Seed list for the future factor step. Each still needs a threshold, a way to measure it, and a decision on whether it is worth acting on.

Candidate factorAnchored inWhat would need measuring
Evening ambient room illuminance in the 3-4 h before bedGooley 2011 (<200 lux is already enough)lux at eye level, evening
Bedroom darkness during sleepGooley 2011, Tahkamo 2019 (5-10 lux, eyes closed)lux at the pillow, lights out
Melanopic EDI of displays and evening lampsSchollhorn 2023melanopic EDI, rarely published by vendors
Morning daylight exposureDautovich 2019lux and timing of first bright exposure
Screen use in the last hour before sleepChang 2015duration, device, distance
Blue-blocking glasses as a trial interventionHester 2021sleep onset latency before/after
Flicker/PWM of habitual light sources and screensKuller 1998 (indirect)modulation depth and frequency

Note that several of these interact: the Cajochen/Schollhorn alertness tradeoff means an evening intervention has a cost, and Dautovich means a morning intervention is the one with an upside on both axes.

  • No paper on daytime bright-light therapy as an intervention in its own right.
  • No paper on melatonin supplementation, which is the obvious adjacent question.
  • No paper on shift work or chronotype as such.
  • No field/real-world study; everything here is laboratory or review.
  • No paper on PWM/LED flicker specifically; Kuller 1998 predates the hardware.
  • No paper connecting light to mitochondrial function, despite that being the stated intent for this batch. See research/README.md.
Mitochondria, stress and energetics - topic synthesis15 papers

Built 24 August 2026 from the 14 Martin Picard papers written up in ../papers/. Full 190-record bibliography and author disambiguation: ../authors/picard-martin.md.

General literature only, not linked to the personal record.

Mitochondria are not batteries. They are signal transducers: they sense endogenous and environmental inputs, integrate them across a physical network, and emit signals that regulate physiology systemically (Picard and Shirihai, Cell Metab 2022). Everything else follows from this, because a battery cannot transduce a psychosocial state and a processor can.

The intuitive model of mitochondrial disease is ATP shortage. Sturm 2023 (690 patients, 17 cohorts) shows the opposite: OxPhos defects raise resting energy expenditure, and disrupting OxPhos in cells roughly doubles energy expenditure. Critically, this happens with near-normal coupling efficiency, which excludes uncoupling and makes it a real finding rather than an artefact.

The excess spending is what tracks with accelerated telomere erosion and epigenetic aging per cell division. The problem is not too little energy produced, it is too much energy spent. This is the strongest evidence in the folder.

Shaulson 2024 resolves a genuine paradox: aging cells spend more energy while whole-body expenditure stays flat or falls. The brain-body energy conservation model proposes the brain reads peripheral hypermetabolism through cytokine signals and responds by suppressing low-priority processes.

The reframing is the substance: fatigue, physical inactivity, blunted senses, immune changes and endocrine "deficits" become budgeting decisions rather than failures. Note this is a model built from separate literatures, not demonstrated end to end.

GDF15 recurs everywhere: secreted under OxPhos stress (Sturm 2023), central to the energy resistance framing (Picard 2025), and now resolved into a specific transcriptional arm of the integrated stress response with a usable index (Smith 2026, validated across 44 human tissues, correlates with age).

This is the part of the framework most likely to survive, because it is a measurable molecule with a defined pathway rather than a concept. Note the group published a same-year caution, "Potential Risks of Blocking GDF15-Based Brain Energy Sensing" (J Am Geriatr Soc 2026): if GDF15 is how the brain learns that energy is short, blocking it removes the signal rather than the problem.

Guo 2026 (UK Biobank, median 14 years follow-up, filed T2) is the biggest independent test of GDF15 to date, and it splits cleanly in two.

As a marker it performs remarkably. One baseline measurement predicted, per log2 unit: all-cause dementia HR 1.98, stroke 1.92, Alzheimer's 1.84, epilepsy 1.71, overall brain disorders 1.54, sleep disorders 1.40, depression 1.38, Parkinson's 1.37, anxiety 1.26. All P < 0.001, over a decade in advance.

As a cause it fails. Mendelian randomization did not support a direct causal effect. Lipid and inflammation markers partially mediate instead: HDL-C accounts for ~7.5% of the depression association and ~11.5% of sleep disorders, with neutrophil count larger across several outcomes.

That is exactly the distinction the framework needs and rarely gets. GDF15 looks like a readout of systemic strain, not the lever that produces it. It supports using GDF15 to detect something and argues against trying to lower it, which is the empirical form of the group's own published caution.

Read the null carefully: one-sample MR in a single volunteer cohort is not proof that no causal effect exists. "Not supported" is the correct reading, not "excluded".

FindingStrength
Acute psychological stress raises cell-free mtDNA 2-3x, with no change in nuclear DNA; glucocorticoid signalling alone sufficient in cells (Trumpff 2019)Moderate. Small n, replicated within-subject across two sessions.
Well-being tracks higher brain OxPhos protein, negative mood lower; together 18-25% of complex I variance; psychosocial exposure measured years before death (Trumpff 2024)Moderate-high, but observational. Direction of causation genuinely open.
A functional leukocyte index (MHI) tracked positive mood on the preceding days, and was lower in high-stress caregivers (Picard 2018, n=91)Moderate. Suggestive timing, not an experiment.

The Trumpff 2024 cell-type result is the methodologically important one: associations were positive in glia and opposite in neurons, so they cancelled out and were invisible in bulk tissue. A null result in bulk brain tissue is therefore not a null result.

Rosenberg 2021 solidly demonstrates two things: human hair greying is quantifiably reversible, and grey hairs upregulate mitochondrial and energy-metabolism proteins. Single-hair profiling as a physical timeline of recent life history is a genuinely novel method.

The stress association is case-series scale: a small number of hairs from a small number of people, stress self-reported and time-matched retrospectively. It is universally reported as "stress turns hair grey and reducing stress reverses it". The paper does not show that. Keep the method and the hypothesis separate.

Six of the fourteen filed papers are theory, not evidence: Picard 2018 (framework), Picard 2021 (social mitochondria), Picard 2022 (signal transduction), Sercel 2024, Shaulson 2024, Picard 2025 (energy resistance). They are marked theory (not evidence) in ../index.csv.

This is not a criticism, it is how to read the bibliography. The frameworks are why the work is widely discussed; the measurements are what can be relied on.

Three specific cautions:

  • The energy resistance principle is not operationalised. A single quantity proposed to span diabetes, cancer metabolism, Alzheimer's and aging, with no way yet to measure it in a person. GDF15 is the nearest proxy.
  • Its practical advice (sleep, physical activity) is already well supported by evidence that owes nothing to this framework. Do not treat the framework as the justification for advice that stands on its own.
  • The author audits himself, in public. The 2018 systematic review states that all 23 controlled studies were male lab animals and that no experimental human evidence existed for the framework published beside it. That is the honest baseline, and much of the human work it demanded has since been done, largely by this group.
PapersHuman?
Sturm 2023, Trumpff 2019, Trumpff 2024, Picard 2018 MHI, Rosenberg 2021, Mosharov 2025, Smith 2026Yes
Mosharov 2025 brain mapYes, but one donor hemisphere
Picard 2018 systematic review's evidence baseNo - all male lab animals
  • No intervention trial. Nothing here tests whether changing anything changes a mitochondrial outcome in a person. The entire folder is descriptive.
  • No exercise paper filed, despite "Exercise as Mitochondrial Medicine" (Annu Rev Physiol 2025) existing in the bibliography. That is the obvious next addition and the one with practical content.
  • No sleep paper filed, though the energy resistance principle names sleep as a primary lever. This is the natural bridge to light-and-circadian.md, and that bridge is currently asserted by neither folder.
  • Limited external corroboration. Guo 2026 is the first filed paper in this topic from outside the group, and it is on GDF15 only. The brain map, the cell-free mtDNA work and the hypermetabolism findings still rest entirely on their originators.
  • Nothing on mitochondrial genetics as such, which is the part that would connect to genetics/mito.FASTA and data/mtdna.json in the personal record.
  • No photobiomodulation / near-infrared work, the actual light-mitochondria literature, which is distinct from both this topic and the melanopsin pathway in light-and-circadian.md.